Toronto Real Estate Market Update — March 2026
See January + December Market Report
Overview
A breakdown of the Toronto real estate market in March 2026, including sales, pricing trends, and what’s shaping the spring market.
March offered the first real look at how the spring market is beginning to take shape.
While it didn’t mark a turning point, it did introduce a subtle shift. Activity picked up, new listings declined, and the balance between supply and demand began to move slightly — not dramatically, but enough to notice.
The Toronto real estate market is still measured overall, but compared to the start of the year, there are early signs that conditions may be starting to tighten.
A Shift Beneath the Surface
There were 5,039 home sales across the GTA in March, up 1.7% compared to last year, while new listings dropped to 14,442 — a 16.7% decline year-over-year.
At the same time, the average selling price came in at $1,017,796, down 6.7% from March 2025.
Individually, these numbers don’t suggest a major shift. But together, they point to something more meaningful.
Sales are beginning to increase, while supply is tightening.
That dynamic doesn’t change the market overnight — but it does start to influence direction.
A Market That’s Still Selective
The overall feel of the market hasn’t changed dramatically, but it is evolving.
Buyers remain active, but deliberate. They’re taking their time, comparing options, and negotiating where they can. Homes that are priced appropriately and presented well are still selling, while anything that stretches beyond what the market will support is sitting longer and adjusting.
What is starting to shift is the amount of choice available.
With fewer new listings coming to market, some segments are beginning to feel tighter than they did earlier this year — particularly in areas where inventory is already limited.
This isn’t a hot market, but it’s also not as loose as it was a few months ago.
What’s Driving the Market Right Now
The main drivers shaping the market haven’t changed all that much. Borrowing costs continue to play the biggest role in buyer behaviour, and even with some recent stability, affordability is still dictating what people are comfortable doing.
That said, there are early signs that improved affordability is starting to bring some buyers back into the market. As noted in the latest TRREB release, “an increasing number of GTA households are looking to take advantage of improved affordability…” — which aligns with what we’re beginning to see on the ground. Buyers aren’t rushing, but more of them are stepping in when the numbers make sense.
At the same time, the supply side is beginning to shift. March reinforced something we started to see in February — new listings are declining faster than sales. That matters, because inventory is what gives buyers leverage. When supply begins to tighten, even gradually, the balance of the market can start to shift.
TRREB also noted that if this trend continues, selling prices could begin to level off. It’s still early, but it’s the first time in a while where that conversation feels realistic.
Looking Ahead
As we move further into the spring market, the key question is whether this shift continues.
If more buyers keep stepping in while new listings remain constrained, we could start to see conditions tighten — particularly in well-positioned segments of the market. That doesn’t necessarily mean prices move up quickly, but it could mean less negotiating room and more competition in certain areas.
At the same time, confidence remains a major factor. There is demand in the market — it’s just cautious.
March didn’t mark a turning point, but it did show direction. The market still feels measured overall, but it may be starting to lean.
For buyers, conditions remain relatively favourable, though that balance could begin to shift if supply continues to tighten. For sellers, the opportunity is there, but success still comes down to being aligned with the market — not ahead of it.
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